Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
